Economic Trends in 2009, Predictions for 2010
There is no doubt that 2009 plagued the nation with significant economic challenges. Some markets have seen home prices decline more than 50 percent, while others were fortunate to maintain steady values of their homes. Central Texas home sales even saw declines of 22 to 36 percent during the first quarter of 2009 when compared to 2008. As the year progressed, however, Austin-area home sales continued to gain momentum, with third quarter reports indicating the first leveling-out in sales volumes since 2008. July marked the first month in 2009 where home sales reached 2008 levels. This trend continued into the fall, with November reporting a year-over-year increase of 58 percent—the largest increase recorded in more than 10 years.
Highs and Lows of Austin-area Homes Sales
As of November, year-to-dates sales in the Austin-area are down 7 percent in 2009 when compared to 2008. During the first 11 months of 2008, 19,016 homes were sold. Only 17,629 homes have been sold during the same period in 2009. The difference equates to 1,387 fewer homes having been sold.
Dr. Jim Gaines, research economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, notes that while the Austin real estate market has seen declines relative to the past few years, the local market has been able to sustain itself reasonably well. Overall, there was not a collapse in prices and values in Austin as we saw in the key markets nationally, Gaines continued.
Median home values for Austin Homes have remained steady in Austin, fluctuating between $175,500 and $199,900 throughout 2009. The summer selling months recorded the highest median prices, ranging from $193,000 to $199,000. As of November, year-to-date median prices for single-family homes are down only one percent when compared to 2008.
Looking Beyond the Lone Star State
Drastic increases in home prices and the subsequent declines seen during the recession have created instability in many markets outside of Texas. One extreme example is Monterey county in California where median prices of single-family homes experienced a 54.5 percent decrease from 2008 to 2009. As a whole, median home values across the U.S. have experienced declines that were not as drastic. The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) reports median home prices were down 7.1 percent to $173,100 in October compared to the prior year.
On the sales front, recent figures from NAR indicate that nationwide, home sales are improving. NAR reported that existing-home sales were up 10.1 percent in October to 6.10 million units nationally. This is a seasonally adjusted annual rate. These figures are up from September, when 5.54 million units were sold. Additionally, these figures show a dramatic change from 2008, when only 4.94 millions units were sold, a 23.5 percent difference.
Despite sales gains, foreclosures remain a concern throughout the United States. According to data from RealtyTrac, Inc., foreclosure filings were up 18 percent in November 2009 compared to the previous year. Compared to the previous month, however, foreclosures across the nation decreased by almost eight percent in November.
Foreclosures are a prominent issue in four states— California, Florida, Illinois and Michigan. In both October and November, these states were responsible for more than half of the total number of foreclosures. Nationally, 306,627 properties received foreclosure notices in November, which equates to one in every 417 housing units. Texas accounted for 12,095 of the foreclosure filings for the month which represents approximately four percent of the national total. Even so, Texas foreclosures have increased 54.21 percent compared to November 2008. In Austin, foreclosures are also rising despite the fact that Austin holds fewer subprime loans than the typical market. Data from Foreclosure Listing Service Inc. indicates that Austin area foreclosures are up 57 percent in 2009 compared to a year ago.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
Job growth and the sustainability of jobs influence both the economy and the housing market. Eldon Rude, director of Austin market of Metrostudy, links the eventual recovery in the local housing market with the continuation of positive job growth.
The relative stability of Texas home prices and unemployment figures which fall below the national average have also helped Texas markets remain steady. According to monthly statistical reports from the Texas Workforce Commission, the Texas unemployment rate increased from 8.2 percent in September to 8.3 percent in October. While unemployment continues to rise, Texas is fairing better than the U.S. as a whole, which reported an unemployment rate of 10.2 percent in October.
Gaines is hopeful that job losses in Texas will end in 2010. He notes that once there is greater stability in the job market, individuals are likely to have more to spend on goods and services, which will bode well for the economy as a whole. Job security will help lead to more confident purchasing decisions by consumers, and job growth can help attract new residents, leading to a greater demand for housing.
Population Expectations
According to a presentation by Gaines at ABoR’s Realty Round Up in October, some experts predict that the population in Texas will increase substantially from 2007 to 2040. With a population of 23.8 million in 2007, an anticipated increase of 88.7 percent translates to a total population of 44.9 million in Texas in 2040. Locally, the Austin-area is expected to increase in population 150 percent by 2040, with projections of four million people.
New Residential Construction Rebounding
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, permits for new residential construction were down four percent in October, as well as housing starts which declined by 10.6 percent. Some experts note that slower construction may help to maintain a tight supply and stabilize home prices in some areas.
Housing starts are expected to improve across the nation in 2010. In November, national housing market research firm Metrostudy released projected numbers for housing starts with 558,000 starts expected for 2009. Metrostudy forecasts this number to increase to 719,000 starts in 2010.
Positive Reinforcement from the Government
The first-time homebuyer tax credit, which launched in February 2009, was extended in November for first time buyers and expanded to include current homeowners through April 2010. The extension came after much support from the REALTOR® community. In the Economists’ Commentary from December 7, NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, notes that “4.4 million Americans look to take advantage of the home buyer tax credit before it expires by the middle of next year.”
The tax credits have impacted the market across the board. Gaines estimates a 10 to 15 percent difference in sales volume because of the credit that otherwise would not have happened. He continued that the expansion of the credit for current homeowners represents a “once in a lifetime opportunity” to buy.
Looking Ahead to 2010
In November, Forbes released a report featuring America’s Fastest-Recovering Cities, where four Texas cities were included in the top 10. The cities that made the list have diversified their industries, remained relatively stable in their housing markets and are well-equipped to make it through the current recession. Cities were judged on five categories: unemployment, the size of the economy, foreclosures, home prices and sales rates. San Antonio ranked second on the list, followed by Austin in third, Dallas in sixth and Houston in eighth.
While no one can predict the future, most can agree that the forecast for 2010 is hopeful. Rude expects Austin and Texas to lead the economic recovery over the new few years. Additionally, Gaines predicts that the market will have its normal swings up and down, but does not foresee anything too unpredictable in 2010. At best, Gaines says the market will be flat, as nothing currently indicates that Central Texas will experience an exceptionally active or inactive housing market.
With positive prospects for 2010, REALTORS® and consumers can expect increased stability in the economy and housing market in the coming year. Meanwhile, the optimism for the job market and potential stabilizing of home prices appear to be positive signs for the real estate community.
From: The Austin REALTOR®. The Austin REALTOR® is published monthly by the Austin Board of REALTORS®. https://www.abor.com/news_media/austin_realtor_print_archives/2010/JanFeb10.pdf
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